The Personal Saving Rate Just Fell to 3.8% — the Lowest Since October 2022, and the 7th Percentile of 67 Years of Data

Correction November 11, 2026: The original headline and opening paragraph said that only the mid-2000s pre-crisis years were consistently lower than September 2026's 3.8%. FRED's PSAVERT series shows eight consecutive months from March to October 2022 at 2.4%-3.6%, so the accurate statement is that 3.8% is the lowest reading since October 2022. Also corrected: the 2006-2007 band (1.9%-3.3%, not 1.9%-2.4%), the 1998-2001 range (3.7%-4.8%, which applies to September 1999-December 2000), the count of monthly declines in the past year (six of twelve, not nine) and the recession-pattern claim (two of three episodes, not two of two). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Correction November 12, 2026: The episode table still showed the pre-correction 2006-2007 band of 1.9%-2.4%; it now shows 1.9%-3.3%, matching the text. The 1998-2001 row now states that the 3.7%-4.8% range covers September 1999 through December 2000 only, because 2001 monthly readings ranged from 2.9% (October) to 6.9% (September). Source: BEA Personal Saving Rate (PSAVERT) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, series as of the October 29, 2026 update.

The Herbert C. Hoover Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.

Photo: Herbert C. Hoover Building, Washington, D.C., headquarters of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Gunnar Klack (CC BY-SA 4.0), via Wikimedia Commons. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which publishes the personal saving rate discussed below, is housed within the Commerce Department.

Key takeaways

  • The U.S. personal saving rate fell to 3.8% in September 2026, the lowest monthly reading since October 2022 (3.6%). Two earlier stretches ran below today's level: March to October 2022 (2.4%-3.6%, eight straight months) and 2005 through 2007 (1.4%-3.3%, right before the last financial crisis).
  • At 3.8%, September 2026 sits at roughly the 7th percentile of every monthly reading in the series' 67-year history back to January 1959 -- lower than about 93% of all months on record.
  • The decline has been fast: the rate was 5.8% as recently as October 2024 and of the twelve month-over-month changes through September 2026 six were declines, three were increases and three were unchanged.
  • A falling saving rate preceded both the 2001 and 2008 recessions, but it also tracks rising household wealth from stock and home prices -- it is not a clean, standalone recession signal on its own.

Figures checked: November 11, 2026, using the Bureau of Economic Analysis's Personal Saving Rate series (PSAVERT) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated October 29, 2026.

The personal saving rate -- the share of after-tax income households set aside rather than spend -- dropped to 3.8% in September 2026. In 67 years of monthly data going back to 1959, two earlier stretches ran below today's level for months at a time: the mid-2000s run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, and an eight-month dip in 2022 that no recession followed. That parallel is real, but so is the gap between the two periods, and it matters for what comes next.

What the September 2026 reading actually says

The Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates the personal saving rate as personal saving divided by disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, and publishes it monthly as part of the Personal Income and Outlays release. The September 2026 value of 3.8% is down from 4.0% in August and 4.5% in July, continuing a decline that has been underway since early 2024. Ranking that 3.8% reading against all 813 monthly observations from January 1959 through September 2026 puts it at approximately the 7th percentile -- only about 7% of all months in the series' history recorded a saving rate this low or lower.

PeriodAverage personal saving rate
1950s (from 1959)10.3%
1960s11.2%
1970s12.2%
1980s9.8%
1990s7.2%
2000s4.2%
2010s6.2%
2020s (through Sept. 2026)7.6%
September 2026 (single month)3.8%

Even measured against the already-low 2000s decade average of 4.2% -- itself the lowest decade on record -- September 2026's 3.8% comes in below average. The 2020s decade average of 7.6% is pulled up by the 2020-2021 pandemic-stimulus spike, when the rate briefly hit 31.8% in April 2020; excluding that distortion, the underlying trend since 2022 has pointed steadily downward.

The 2005-2007 parallel, and the 2022 reading that went lower

The closest historical match to today's reading is the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Monthly saving rates bottomed at 1.4% in July 2005 and stayed in a roughly 1.9%-3.3% band through 2006 and 2007, finally hitting 1.9% in November 2007 -- one month before the December 2007 recession officially began, per the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dates. September 2026's 3.8% has not fallen as far as that trough, but the trajectory -- down from 5.8% in October 2024 to 3.8% twenty-three months later -- is a comparably fast decline.

EpisodeSaving rate trajectoryWhat followed
July 2005 - November 2007Fell to 1.4%, then held in a 1.9%-3.3% band for roughly two yearsGreat Recession began December 2007 (NBER)
1998-2001Fell from about 7% in early 1998 to a 3.7%-4.8% range from September 1999 through December 2000; 2001 readings swung between 2.9% and 6.9%Mild 2001 recession (dot-com bust), began March 2001 (NBER)
March - October 2022Fell to 2.4% in June 2022, then held between 3.4% and 3.6% through OctoberNo recession followed; NBER has dated no cycle peak after February 2020
October 2024 - September 2026Fell from 5.8% to 3.8%Not yet determined

Two of the three earlier episodes of a sustained decline in the saving rate were followed by a recession within a year or two of the trough. The third was not: the rate fell to 2.4% in June 2022 -- well below today's 3.8% -- and the expansion continued. Two hits and one miss out of three is a pattern worth watching rather than a rule, and the mechanism linking a low saving rate to a recession is less direct than it might appear.

Why a falling saving rate is not a standalone crash signal

The saving rate falls for more than one reason, and not all of them are warning signs. When stock and home prices rise, households feel wealthier and tend to save less of their current income because part of their wealth-building is already happening through asset appreciation -- economists call this the wealth effect. Both the late-1990s dot-com runup and the 2026 period studied here coincided with strong equity markets, so some of the saving-rate decline reflects confidence and rising net worth rather than financial strain. The rate can also fall because borrowing is cheap and credit is easy to get, which pulled consumption forward in 2004-2007 through subprime and home-equity lending in a way that is not identical to 2026's credit conditions.

There is also a mechanical, accounting-level reason the saving rate can drift lower even when households are not behaving any differently: it is a ratio, and its denominator (disposable personal income) grows every year from wage gains and investment income, including realized capital gains in some income definitions. If spending rises in step with income, the saving rate can hold roughly flat; if income growth temporarily outpaces measured saving because of how bonuses, stock-based compensation, or one-time income items get smoothed across months, the ratio can dip without reflecting a genuine change in household financial discipline. This is one reason economists prefer to look at several consecutive months or a multi-quarter trend, as this article does, rather than reacting to any single monthly print.

The honest reading is that a sustained decline into the bottom decile of the historical distribution has, in two of three instances, coincided with a recession arriving within roughly one to two years, while the 2022 episode went lower than today and was followed by no recession at all -- a pattern worth watching, not a mechanical trigger. The saving rate is better understood as a symptom of whatever is driving household behavior (confidence, wealth, credit access) than as an independent cause of a downturn. A rate this low does increase household vulnerability to an income shock, since there is less of a cash buffer being built each month, but vulnerability to a shock is different from a forecast that the shock is coming.

What would change this picture

The next two Personal Income and Outlays releases, due from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, will show whether September 2026's 3.8% is a trough or a continuation of the downtrend; a reversal back above 5% would weaken the 2005-2007 parallel considerably, while several more months near or below 4% would strengthen it. Labor market data matters more directly than the saving rate itself: both 2001 and 2008 saw saving-rate troughs that preceded job losses, so a rise in initial unemployment claims alongside a still-low saving rate would be a more concrete warning than the saving rate alone. Revisions are also a factor -- BEA revises recent quarters as more complete income data comes in, and saving-rate figures for the most recent few months are historically the most likely to be revised. In the 2007 episode, some of the lowest monthly readings were themselves revised modestly higher in later years as more complete annual income data arrived, which is a reminder that the September 2026 figure used throughout this piece could look somewhat different once BEA's annual revision cycle works through it.

FAQ

What is the U.S. personal saving rate right now?

3.8% in September 2026, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis's Personal Saving Rate series, updated October 29, 2026.

Is a 3.8% saving rate low by historical standards?

Yes. It sits at roughly the 7th percentile of all monthly readings since January 1959, meaning about 93% of months in that 67-year history had a higher saving rate.

When was the saving rate last this low?

October 2022, at 3.6% -- no month between then and September 2026 came in this low. March to October 2022 ran between 2.4% and 3.6% for eight straight months, and 2005 through 2007 ran between 1.4% and 3.3% in the years before the 2008 financial crisis.

Does a low saving rate mean a recession is coming?

Not by itself. It preceded the 2001 and 2008 recessions, but it also falls during periods of rising household wealth and confidence, such as strong stock market years. It is a vulnerability indicator, not a standalone forecasting tool.

Why has the saving rate been falling since 2024?

The data does not isolate a single cause, but the decline has coincided with a period of strong equity markets (a wealth effect) and sustained consumer spending growth; this article does not attribute the decline to any one factor without further data.

Related reading

Tip: A national saving rate only moves because of millions of individual decisions, and your own is the one you can measure. Writing down what you set aside and why in an investment journal, or mapping the year ahead in an investment planner, turns a macro headline into something you can act on. (These are Amazon Associate links — we may earn a small commission on qualifying purchases.)

Sources

This article is general investment education, not personalized financial advice, and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are sourced directly from the Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED as of the date noted above and are subject to future revision.

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